Will Russian atrocities in Ukraine be recognized as genocide?
Here is what the researchers say about this.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said the mass killings of civilians in Bucha will be recognized as genocide. However, it is not that simple.
Recognizing something as an act of genocide is a very complicated procedure. War crimes and crimes against humanity fundamentally differ from genocide, implying a clear intent to completely destroy a particular ethnic, racial, national, or religious group. And it is very difficult to prove this intent.
Besides, the crimes need to be investigated. An International Criminal Court investigation is already underway. At the request of 39 countries, in early March, the ICC announced the launch of an investigation into war crimes after Russia invaded Ukraine. The ICC Office of the Prosecutor exercised its jurisdiction to investigate three international crimes, including genocide.
There also needs to be an investigation at the national level. And it is not just Ukraine that can do it. Six countries (Estonia, Lithuania, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Sweden) are already investigating Russia's crimes.
Human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch, are also collecting evidence.
But is the world community talking about genocide?
Some European countries are already beginning to recognize Russia's crimes as genocide. According to the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, the crimes committed by Russia in Bucha and other cities should be called acts of genocide and considered as such. He proposed the establishment of an international commission to investigate the crime of genocide in Ukraine.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also called the crimes of the Russians genocide. A joint statement by the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic also mentioned genocide.
However, not all are unanimous. The EU has been talking only about “war crimes and crimes against humanity.” US President Biden refused to recognize what the Russian army did as genocide. He also called them a “war crime.” The Israeli prime minister condemned the Bucha killings but did not accuse Russia of war crimes.
What are the chances that the atrocities committed by the Russian army in Ukraine will be recognized as genocide? Below is what international researchers of genocide say about it.
Eugene Finkel: “This is pure genocide”
Political scientist and historian at Johns Hopkins University; holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Wisconsin-Madison; holocaust researcher and author of books on genocide.
According to Finkel, there are considerable gaps in defining genocide. “The official legal definition of genocide is “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group.” It does not give us clear thresholds (what does “in part” even mean?), and it is almost impossible to prove intent.”
“People who carry out genocide are usually not idiots; if there are orders at all, they would be given orally,” Finkel said.
However, even this problematic definition fits well with what happened in Ukraine.
In the researcher’s view, the Russian invasion did not start with clear genocidal intent but evolved into one. Regime change and colonial subjugation are by themselves not enough to constitute genocide but can escalate when conditions change.
There also is growing evidence that Bucha is not an isolated case. Yet the most important thing is an article about Ukraine published by the Russian state outlet RIA Novosti.
“This piece is one of the most explicit statements of intent to destroy a national group as such that I’ve ever seen,” Finkel wrote.
Genocide Watch, a leading NGO, reprinted Finkel’s article entitled “Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine.” “President Zelensky of Ukraine correctly called Russia’s crimes Genocide, as well as war crimes, crimes against humanity, and aggression. When will State Department legal advisor genocide deniers ever use the G-word while genocide is underway?” Genocide Watch wrote on Twitter.
Jonathan Leader Maynard: “There are not enough grounds to declare that genocide has taken place, but things can change”
Doctor of philosophy in genocide research, mass killing, and atrocity crimes; lecturer at King’s College London.
According to Jonathan Maynard, we must be careful with the term “genocide,” which has a very specific legal meaning. However, we must also show the clearest evidence of atrocities committed against civilians.
“The Genocide Convention states that genocide does not require an effort to wipe out an entire group. But it involves more than the killing of civilians or the perpetration of atrocities like rape, torture, mutilation, etc. These could be genocidal acts but often aren’t,” Maynard wrote.
Whether they are genocidal depends on their strategic intent: was this an effort to eliminate groups based on their ethnicity, nationality, etc.? It is extremely hard to get good data on the shape of – let alone the intent behind – such campaigns during an ongoing conflict.
Maynard called the piece by RIA Novosti an alarming signal, which some researchers see as an announcement of intent. But it is not enough to declare that genocide has taken place.
There is growing evidence of the Russian military’s mass attack on civilians. The UN has confirmed Russian forces have killed over 1,500 civilians, but this number will rise with better data.
Maynard believes there is still no clear evidence of outright genocide at this stage – but he cannot disconfirm the possibility of genocide either.
However, Maynard emphasizes that the common assertion that abuses against civilians are ‘inevitable’ in war is totally false. “States have been found to directly target civilians in roughly 1/5 to 1/3 of all wars. Atrocities are appalling but not inevitable.”