Red Flag Alert - Somalia in Somaliland

The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention is issuing a Red Flag Alert for Genocide against the people of Somaliland, particularly the Isaaq clan, who are at risk of suffering another genocide at the hands of the neighboring state of Somalia. The Institute is concerned that Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty could have the effect of rendering Somaliland even more vulnerable to military invasion from Somalia in an effort to “restore” territorial integrity before it loses more political ground. As demonstrated by the recent speech given by Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN, Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman, the Somalian government continues to deny the 1987-1989 genocide against the Isaaq people, which claimed an estimated 200,000 lives. In recent years the government of Somaliland has accused Somalia of stoking conflict in Somaliland’s eastern regions in order to undermine Somaliland’s de facto sovereignty and its pursuit of international recognition, an accusation which Somalia has denied.

An armed conflict with Somalia would put the people of Somaliland at risk of renewed genocidal violence, only 35 years after the conclusion of Somalia’s previous genocidal campaign. Survivors of that genocide would suffer a repeat at the hands of the same military.

Under dictator Siad Barre, who ruled Somalia from 1969-1991, Somalia’s marginalization of the Isaaq clan pushed Somaliland towards actively re-asserting its sovereignty and independence, causing the outbreak of hostilities known as the Somaliland War of Independence. Barre’s resulting genocide of Somaliland’s largest clan, the Isaaq, which took place between 1987 and 1989, claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Isaaq people and forced half a million more to flee their homeland. In a campaign laid out in a document entitled “The Final Solution to the Isaaq Problem,” Somalia’s military hunted down and killed people based on their ethnic identity, used rape as a weapon of war, poisoned wells, and engineered a man-made famine. The almost-total destruction of the Somaliland capital of Hargeisa has led the genocide to be dubbed the “Hargeisa Holocaust.”

A 2001 report commissioned jointly by the United Nations Coordination Unit (UNCU) and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) found that Somalia had committed the crime of genocide. In the wake of these atrocities and the collapse of the Siad Barre regime on 18 May 1991, Somaliland formally declared itself independent from Somalia. Ever since, Somaliland’s authorities have been actively campaigning for recognition from the international community.

On 26 December 2025, Israel became the first UN member state to officially recognize Somaliland as an independent country. This surprise move, more than 30 years after Somaliland’s declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has resulted in widespread criticism from the African Union (AU), Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and China, among others. These actors view Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an attempt to infringe upon Somalian sovereignty in order to accomplish Israel’s strategic objectives in the Red Sea, which are tied to its genocidal push for ‘Greater Israel’ in the Middle East. Furthermore, Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has claimed that Israel only recognized Somaliland’s independence in exchange for a planned Israeli resettlement of Palestinians to Somaliland. This has been categorically denied by both Somaliland and Israel. Any use of Somaliland’s territory to advance the genocide of Palestinians through forced displacement from their ancestral home would be illegal under international law and any plans involving the forced removal of Palestinians to Somaliland must be stopped and condemned.

Notwithstanding any self-serving intentions behind Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s “right to self-determination,” the rapid international backlash to Israel’s move threatens to obscure the legitimacy of Somaliland’s claims to independence and exacerbate tensions in the already-volatile Horn of Africa region.

In response to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, Somalia’s Defense Minister, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur “Fiqi,” compared Somaliland’s President to the leader of Yemen’s separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) in an effort to appeal for Saudi military intervention in Somaliland. Coming in the wake of Saudi-led strikes on STC positions on 7 January 2026, Mogadishu is attempting to use Saudi munitions to suppress Somaliland’s legitimate right to self-determination and its engagement in international diplomacy. Somalia’s requests for Saudi intervention while chairing the Presidency of the UN Security Council constitutes an existential threat for the Isaaq people and Somaliland’s right to self-governance. The Government of Somaliland has strongly condemned Somalia’s calls for Saudi intervention as a grave escalation that violates the UN Charter, and the Lemkin Institute condemns any such foreign military intervention in Somaliland.

In the thirty five years since the genocide, independent Somaliland has managed to engage in an extensive state-building process, creating an island of calm and stability next to the divided state of Somalia. Somaliland has succeeded in establishing a functioning democratic system, an economy conducted in its own local currency, and armed forces to defend its sovereignty. The Lemkin Institute supports the Somaliland people’s efforts to rebuild and defend their rights in the wake of the catastrophe they suffered.

In spite of this progress, international recognition of Somaliland’s independent statehood had been absent until Israel’s announcement. Despite acquiring diplomatic relations with a variety of states, only Ethiopia and Taiwan – the latter being only partially recognized itself – had made moves towards recognition of Somaliland before Israel. The majority of states still tacitly concur with Somalia’s assertion that Somaliland is an integral state within its federal republic. The absence of recognized statehood has had significant repercussions for Somaliland’s security and economy—particularly the inaccessibility of foreign aid, loans, and other financial benefits. Notable exceptions include major port investment deals with the UAE and Ethiopia. However, in the absence of recognized independence, such agreements could also prove to be a trigger for the recurrence of violence between Somalia and Somaliland, with the risk of Somalia pursuing genocidal aims once again.

Somaliland’s security has been additionally challenged by Egypt, which is involved in a separate dispute with Ethiopia, particularly surrounding the latter’s construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the blue Nile. This dispute has contributed to Egypt’s active positioning as a key ally of Somalia. Egypt has committed to actively supplying the Somalian armed forces with weaponry and formal training in an attempt to help Somalia “extend sovereignty” over Somaliland. These actions are intended to destabilize Somaliland in order to ensure Egyptian-Somali control over lucrative Somaliland ports, thereby equally blocking Ethiopian interests. This points towards another potential escalation of the tensions between Somaliland and Somalia, which could easily result in a full scale armed invasion of Somaliland territory.

In a similar vein, China has sought to counter Taiwanese influence in Somaliland by firmly backing Mogadishu and seeking destabilizing measures in Somaliland. Strategically utilizing financial and diplomatic support for Somalia’s federal government, China has also directly fueled instability by supporting the SSC-Khatumo rebels in Somaliland’s eastern Sool region. China has interfered in Somaliland’s affairs since it established diplomatic ties with Taiwan in July 2020, which Beijing views as an affront to its One China policy. China’s presence in the region constitutes another potential flash point for the outbreak of conflict, and as such the Lemkin Institute urges China to cease its rebel support and its lobbying of AU and Western governments not to engage with Somaliland.

Somaliland’s independence claims stretch much further back than the 1991 declaration. Formerly the colony of British Somaliland (1884-1960), Somaliland enjoyed a short spell of independence before becoming incorporated into Italian Somalia (present-day Somalia) in 1960. The legality of the process through which Somalia claimed the territory of independent Somaliland is disputed. British Somaliland gained independence before Italian Somalia and the attempt to integrate the two territories into a unified Somali Republic did not proceed legally. Although Somaliland and Somalia agreed to a union on specified terms, Somalia did not move forward with this agreement. Instead, Somalia made a bid to unilaterally claim Somaliland through a constitution on different terms than the ones to which Somaliland had agreed. Facing marginalization, Somaliland junior officers tried to oust Somalian troops and officers from Somaliland and restore Somaliland independence, most notably during the revolt of 1961, but were ultimately unsuccessful. The same year, Somalilanders boycotted the elections to ratify the illegal constitution of the "Somali Republic." Somalia unilaterally and retroactively ratified the constitution in 1961.

Somaliland has a strong legal case for independence. Although the Charter of the Organization of African Unity – the predecessor to the African Union – normatively opposes post-independence alterations to African borders, in 2005 an African Union Fact-Finding mission concluded that the union between Somaliland and Somalia was not ratified and thus not legally binding. In its report, the investigators argued that “[t]he fact that the "union between Somaliland and Somalia was never ratified" and also malfunctioned when it went into action from 1960 to 1990, makes Somaliland's search for recognition historically unique and self-justified in African political history. Objectively viewed, the case should not be linked to the notion of "opening a Pandora’s box". As such, the AU should find a special method of dealing with this outstanding case.”

Now is the time for the United Nations, the African Union, and other international bodies to work towards the establishment of Somaliland’s independence as a legal fact.

The people of Somaliland have suffered immensely under Somalia’s illegal incorporation of its territory. The Isaaq genocide is still openly celebrated in Somalia and Somalian society is awash in genocidal ideology. For example, Colonel Yusuf Abdi Ali Tuke, one of the most brutal perpetrators of the Isaaq genocide who was found guilty of torture by a US jury in 2019, was recently welcomed by pro-Somalia figures in LasAnod, Somaliland, a city in the hands of militia backed by Somalia, following his deportation from the United States. The political project of denying Somaliland’s sovereignty is similar in nature to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s orientation towards Ukraine, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s position on the Republic of Artsakh, and the current Israeli government’s position on Palestine. There is a very high chance that any military invasion of Somaliland by Somalian forces will result in the genocide of Somaliland communities.

The threat posed by Somalia to the peace and prosperity of Somaliland’s populace is directly facilitated by the reluctance of the international community to recognize Somaliland’s independence. The international community must act to serve the interests of ordinary people rather than member states by working extensively towards a just and lasting resolution to the territorial disputes between Somaliland and Somalia. Preventing a relapse into conflict and another genocide by Somalian forces ought to be the highest priority in the region. As an unrecognized state, Somaliland is hamstrung by the lack of protections and capabilities associated with statehood.

The Lemkin Institute believes that Israel’s lone recognition of Somaliland’s independence puts the state and its population at greater risk of aggression and genocide from Somalian forces. We urge the United States, which supported Israel’s action, to immediately recognize Somaliland as an independent nation as a preventative measure. We call on other states with interests in the region to prioritize genocide prevention in pursuing foreign policy. We further call upon African states and the rest of the international community to recognise Somaliland's right to self-determination, to increase its diplomatic efforts towards this end, and to prevent any further escalation of the conflict so that the patterns of genocide in the region do not repeat themselves.