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OPINION: Invading Israel wants a Lebanese civil war
- Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib | Arab News
- Mar 5
- 4 min read
Unconfirmed news has been spreading in Lebanon that Tel Aviv asked the Lebanese government to disband Hezbollah and designate it as a terrorist organization — both its political and military wings — after the group on Monday launched missiles into Israel. It threatened to target key facilities and infrastructure if Lebanon refused. The government rushed to ban the group’s military activities, yet still the Israeli military invaded. This is a repeat of 1982.
Israel has, for some time, been preparing the ground for a civil war in Lebanon. A civil war would make an Israeli invasion much easier, especially if Israel sides with one of the factions. To start with, Israel placed very harsh conditions on Lebanon during the ceasefire negotiations in 2024. Even before negotiating, Israel set the pace for internal discord. Lebanon and Israel announced the ceasefire on Nov. 27, 2024. Since then, Israel has broken it more than 10,000 times. At the same time, Israel and the US refused to give Lebanon or Hezbollah any guarantees.
Tel Aviv has demanded Hezbollah be disarmed, yet it did not commit to stopping the raids on Lebanon if it did so. This created a lot of tension in Lebanon, which was Israel’s intention. Hezbollah’s opponents kept on pushing the group to disarm. However, its arms — or whatever is left of them — are the group’s only bargaining chip.
Many accounts on social media have been stirring up a fight between the Shiites and the rest of the Lebanese Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
The US could have settled this internal discord by stating that, once the group lays down its arms, it can operate as a regular political party, none of its members will be targeted by Israel and that the latter will stop bombing Lebanon. However, the US kept this ambiguity, which greatly emasculated the government.
When Prime Minister Nawaf Salam visited the south of the country last month, one man asked him what guarantees the state was giving them. The PM replied that there are no guarantees. The man then asked why the government was asking the resistance to disarm when the state was offering no guarantee of protection from Israeli aggression.
Israel wanted to put Lebanon in this position. Many accounts on social media have been stirring up a sectarian fight between the Shiite community and the rest of the Lebanese. They have portrayed that normalizing relations with Israel is the only way to save the Christians in Lebanon. It was an orchestrated campaign to increase tensions between Hezbollah and the rest of the Lebanese.
We need to go back to 1982 and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Israel invaded during a civil war between the Christians and the Muslims who supported the Palestinian factions that were fighting Israel from Lebanese territory. Israel conducted a brutal invasion. Following that, Hezbollah was born. The group was conceived as a reaction to Israeli brutality. There was also a need for organized resistance against Israel, given that the response to its invasion was chaotic.
Israel is today using the same playbook: incite a civil war and then go in easily to take land and call it a buffer zone. Israel and the US have put so much pressure on the Lebanese government. According to my sources, the commander of the army advised confronting the Israeli army as it invaded Lebanon, while Salam and President Joseph Aoun ordered the army to retreat rather than face the invaders. Those orders were probably given under American pressure. The logic is that Israel will go in, clean up the place and take whatever they want as a buffer zone — and this way it would have finished the job.
Israel is using the same playbook as in 1982: incite a civil war and then go in easily to take land and call it a buffer zone Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
However, an invasion is exactly what Hezbollah needs to renew its legitimacy. The army retreats in the face of Israel and focuses on collecting Hezbollah’s arms, while the latter takes the fight to the invaders. This totally undermines the state and the army and gives credit to the group, deepening the existing divide.
However, Israel wants Lebanon to remain weak. It has no interest in Lebanon having a strong state. It wants to keep the country divided. As early as 1954, former Prime Minister David Ben Gurion favored dividing the country and creating a Maronite Christian state that Israel would support.
So, the situation in which Israel has put Lebanon favors national discord. It has imposed harsh conditions that Hezbollah cannot accept and the state cannot fulfill. This also increases the ire of the group’s opponents, who blame it for the plight of the country. In all this, the state looks incapable and unwilling to take any action.
Lebanese society is very polarized. Some see Israel as a lesser evil that is needed to get rid of the group. Analyst Tony Boulos even said that “Israel saved Lebanon.” This was at the time Israel was pounding the south and the Bekaa Valley, killing Lebanese. Unfortunately, some Lebanese hate Hezbollah more than they love Lebanon, a friend of mine who is very critical of the group told me.
Lebanese should have the awareness that Israel has expansionist plans for their country. It wants to keep Lebanon divided and its state weak. The country needs national unity. Unfortunately, Lebanon does not have a heavyweight personality to rally people around them. The army was the organization that people trusted. Now, as the army is ordered to retreat and allow Israel to have a field day in the south, many are having doubts. Dark days await Lebanon, very much like June of 1982.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view
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