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Russia is raining hellfire on Ukraine
- The Economist
- May 24
- 4 min read
New attacks push its air defences to saturation point
A year ago, for 30 drones to hit Ukraine in a single night was considered exceptional. Now Russia is saturating Ukraine’s air defences with hundreds of them. On the night of May 25th the Kremlin pummelled the country with what Ukraine called a “massive strike” against Ukrainian cities, featuring 355 drones, a record. It is firing more missiles, too—at least nine that night. Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin “crazy”, but has still done nothing about it. So Ukraine is again stepping into the unknown. If the current ceasefire talks fail, which seems highly probable, air-defence units will need to start rationing their interceptors. More Russian missiles and drones will get through, to hit towns, cities and critical industry.
Russia’s air war stepped up at the start of the year (see chart), with a marked shift in the hardware it uses. Ballistic missiles, many supplied by North Korea, are now centre-stage, alongside a new and more lethal generation of Shahed attack drones. The ballistic missiles are hard to stop because of their speed; only Ukraine’s dwindling stock of Patriot PAC-3 missiles offers a good chance of interception.
Meanwhile, the Shaheds, now in their sixth modification since the first were shipped to Russia by Iran in 2023, are using machine-learning to strike well-protected targets like Kyiv. The newest models, according to a team of engineers who pull apart the wreckage of drones that land on the capital, are unfazed by Ukraine’s electronic warfare. This is because they no longer rely on jammable GPS, are driven by artificial intelligence, and piggy-back on Ukraine’s own internet and mobile networks.
The main challenge facing Ukraine’s air-defence crews is the sheer number flying at them. Last year Russia was producing around 300 Shahed drones a month; that many now roll out in under three days. Ukrainian military intelligence says it has documents that suggest that Russia plans to increase its drone production to 500 a day, suggesting that Ukraine could face attack swarms 1,000-strong. That is probably an exaggeration, cautions Kostiantyn Kryvolap, a Ukrainian aviation expert. Russia’s arms industry runs on bluster and false reporting, he says. “But it’s clear the numbers are going to increase significantly.” Even if Ukraine manages to stabilise the front lines in the east, the difficulties of protecting the skies will only grow.
Not long ago, most of the drone-hunting was done by crews driving around on 4x4s with cheap machine-guns, shoulder-fired missiles and short-range artillery. Now, says Colonel Denys Smazhny, an officer in the air-defence forces, the drones routinely manoeuvre around these groups. They initially fly low to avoid detection, then climb sharply to 2,000-2,500 metres as they near cities, getting out of range of small-calibre guns. So Ukraine is turning to helicopters, F-16 fighter jets and interceptor drones, which have begun to show good results. A senior official says the air defences around Kyiv are knocking out around 95% of the drones that Russia throws at it. But the 5% that slip through cause serious damage.
Patriots, please
Ukraine still has a fighting chance against drones and cruise missiles. But the outlook against ballistic threats is bleaker. Only a handful of countries have systems that can counter such fast and destructive weapons. In the Western world, the American Patriot system has an effective monopoly on the ballistic air-defence business. Ukraine now has at least eight Patriot batteries, though at any given time some are damaged and under repair.
Their crews operate them with impressive skill. Since spring 2023, they have knocked out more than 150 ballistic and air-launched ballistic missiles. But the systems have been largely concentrated around Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, says Ukraine needs at least ten more, with corresponding stockpiles of the PAC-3 interceptors the system uses, to start to make its cities feel secure. He insists the country is ready to pay whatever it takes, presumably using European money. The White House response has been non-committal.
The problem is that Ukraine has slipped from being a priority for the Biden administration to just one of only many potential customers competing for limited production under Donald Trump. Lockheed Martin, which builds the Patriot systems and their PAC-3s, is increasing its output to 650 missiles per year. But this is about 100 fewer than Russia’s projected production of ballistic missiles; a Ukrainian government source reckons Russia has a stockpile of 500 missiles. It usually takes two PAC-3 interceptor missiles to intercept one Russian ballistic missile.
For China hawks in the Trump administration, a Patriot sent to Ukraine is one fewer for the Pacific theatre. Even the most Ukraine-friendly administration—which this one is not—would find it hard to keep pace with Russia’s relentless threat. Ukraine has asked for the right to produce its own version of the PAC-3 under licence, but knows that is unlikely. There are joint-production projects in the pipeline elsewhere in Europe, but none will be ready for at least a year.
Ukraine may therefore have to develop a survival strategy that pairs air defence with offence and deterrence. “We will have to destroy Russian launch complexes, the factories and the stores,” says Mr Kryvolap, the aviation expert. “We should be under no illusions.”
(c) 2025, The Economist
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