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Trump Eyes 'Deal of the Century' With Saudis, Leaving Israel Little Room to Maneuver
- Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz
- May 8
- 7 min read
Trump's moves with the Houthis, Iran, Syria, and Turkey reveal the contours of his new geopolitical map – and reduce Israel into a bystander. The Gaza Strip could be next.
In March, shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump launched massive airstrikes on Houthi bases in Yemen, he stated: "The Houthis are dying for peace... [They] have been hit hard … and they want us to stop so badly …But I can only say that the attacks every day, every night … have been very successful beyond our wildest expectations … We can keep it going for a long time."
It eventually took seven weeks before that supposed Houthi desire for peace was translated into a cease-fire agreement. Yet, it's unclear exactly how - and why - the agreement came to fruition right now. According to one assessment, it was Saudi Arabia that pressured Trump to clear the air before his scheduled visit to the kingdom next week.
Another interpretation holds that Iran 'recommended' the Houthis accept a cease-fire as a gesture toward renewed nuclear negotiations, set to begin again on Sunday, though the official Iranian position states that its allies act independently and that it does not interfere in their decisions.
Behind this web of assumptions hides the notable fact that this was an agreement between the world's strongest superpower and a regime designated as an international terrorist organization. But one shouldn't be too shocked - this isn't the first time Trump has negotiated with groups he himself had labeled as international terrorist organizations.
In 2019, after the Houthis attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, causing enormous damage and severely reducing the kingdom's oil production capacity, Trump didn't pull the trigger, claiming he wasn't a man who was interested in war. When asked if he was committed to defending Saudi Arabia, he replied, "No, I haven't promised the Saudis that. We have to sit down with the Saudis and work something out," he said. "That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn't an attack on us. But we would certainly help them."
Later, Trump clarified that the United States was willing to help Saudi Arabia, but only for a price. Instead, he 'encouraged' the Saudis to begin direct negotiations with the Houthis and reach some form of agreement.
Seven months after the attack, Trump threatened Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: unless Saudi Arabia and OPEC – the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries – cut oil production and ended their "oil war" with Russia, which was hurting the U.S. oil industry, he wouldn't be able to stop Congress from pushing legislation to withdraw American troops and Patriot missile systems from Saudi soil. Those same systems were defending the kingdom from Iran and the Houthis. Ten days later, Saudi Arabia announced a production cut.
From strategic ally to spectator
These two incidents should have taught Israel the necessary lessons about how Trump conducts foreign policy, which could have prevented its astonishment and embarrassment over the recent cease-fire agreement with the Houthis, signed behind Israel's back.
One fundamental principle of the president's policy is that Trump does not intend to fight other people's wars – whether it's Saudi Arabia's, a U.S. ally for over seven decades; nor Ukraine's, fighting for its life against the United States' historical rival; and apparently not Israel's, either.
A second principle, well established by now, is that Trump prefers deals over violent confrontations. To achieve a "good American deal," with the emphasis on American, he has no problem breaking away from traditional diplomatic frameworks, such as not negotiating with terrorist groups, or correcting the mistake he made when he withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran.
The pressure Trump put on bin Salman to negotiate with the Houthis – which ultimately led to the 2022 cease-fire agreement – came just five months before the agreement he signed with another designated terrorist organization, the Taliban in Afghanistan, in 2020.
Signed at the time in Doha, the agreement saw Trump withdraw about 5,000 American soldiers from Afghanistan. This laid the foundation for a subsequent agreement, signed in August 2021 between then-President Joe Biden and the Taliban, which resulted in the full withdrawal of American troops from the country in a chaotic and embarrassing exit.
Trump, who had by then already proved that he wasn't bound by accepted strategic and diplomatic norms, or by relationships once considered sacrosanct, was similarly unfazed when his special envoy, Adam Boehler, met directly this year with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya discuss the hostage issue and post-war control of the Gaza Strip. Boehler may have been sidelined afterward, but the precedent had been set.
Israel, which is not a party to the Houthi agreement, can only conclude that its position now increasingly mirrors that of Saudi Arabia in 2019. From now on, as long as both sides keep to the agreement, it's no longer America's war.
To the list of terrorists with whom the Trump administration has agreed to negotiate, we can also add Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who had met with senior American officials back when Biden was still president. He recently met with Republican members of Congress, too, telling them that he is willing to join the Abraham Accords "under certain conditions."
Al-Sharaa, who met French President Emmannuel Macron on his first visit to Europe this week, and has already held meetings with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, has been sending out requests through intermediaries for a meeting with Trump during his visit to the Gulf states next week.
It's still unknown if such a meeting will take place, but the United States has been engaged in practical talks with Damascus about lifting sanctions on Syria and allowing investments and funding into the country. It has also exempted Qatar from these sanctions, allowing it to transfer tens of millions of dollars to Al-Sharaa's new regime to cover government salaries.
Israel, which began another round of talks with Turkey on Thursday in Baku, Azerbaijan, over the establishment of a coordination mechanism for operations in Syria, will now have to contend with the new restrictions on the scope and nature of its military activities in Syrian airspace and on the ground. It will need to consider not just Turkey's position, but more importantly, Washington's new policy – which views Turkey as an essential partner in the war against the Islamic State – one that could replace American troops, who have already begun their withdrawal from Syria.
The Houthi deal, outreach to the Syrian regime, and tightening ties with Turkey all point to a new geopolitical map Trump is trying to draw, one in which Israel is increasingly just a spectator. This new map may require the United States to intervene directly for now and get its hands dirty with local conflicts - but only to pave the way for a swift withdrawal, leaving local players to manage their own affairs. This map does not reserve a major role for Israel, and Trump has also signaled that Israel may be excluded altogether if it interferes with his plans.
The diplomatic breakthrough with Iran is the most impressive outcome of Trump's isolationist policy, which has shown little regard for longstanding alliances or historic understandings. Sidestepping the European Union and delivering a sledgehammer blow to Netanyahu – Trump started negotiating with Iran as if he brokering a private, American-Iranian deal. If signed, it will be sold as a personal victory for Trump and framed as the 'best deal' – even if it will be hard to spot the differences between it and the original nuclear agreement with Iran signed in 2015.
Israel, the country most threatened by Iran, once held the exclusive "franchise" to neutralize this threat. Now, this license has been revoked by the same American president who once yielded to Israeli pressure - and in doing so, turned Iran into a threshold nuclear state.
The 'Deal of the Century' comes first
A similar "fate" may await the Gaza Strip, a war zone under full Israeli control, where the U.S. has so far confined itself to military and diplomatic backing, and served as the main broker of the hostage deal but could soon shift toward direct American oversight.
Through Israel's conduct of the war – starving Gaza's population on the way to its complete occupation – Israel has turned Gaza into a regional threat with implications for the United States far beyond the local centers of the conflagration, such as clashes with the Houthis, power struggles in Syria, bringing down Hamas and destroying Hezbollah.
Trump, having realized the unfeasibility of the Gaza Riviera project and the mass transfer of two million Gazans, is back on the drawing board – and appears unlikely to settle for a limited U.S.-Arab operation to distribute humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip.
Despite objections from Netanyahu's governing coalition, Trump could very well lay down the framework for the day after the war, which would be based on the Egyptian proposal. In doing so, as with the handling of the Houthis, Iran and Syria, Trump could turn Gaza into "his war" – one in which he sets the terms and expects obedience. After all, Trump isn't about to let a subcontractor pave the way to his Nobel Peace Prize – not even if they're called Israel.
(c) 2025, Haaretz
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